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倪金兰|The Time-Varying Synchronization of Growth Dynamics across Regions in China: Evidence Based on a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model 发布时间: 2019-10-20   浏览次数: 10

倪金兰Jun Ma Shamar Levaughn Stewart合作的论文“The Time-Varying Synchronization of Growth Dynamics across Regions in China: Evidence Based on a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model”发表于国际期刊 China Economic Review2019年。

摘要:China has been subjected to several distinctive policy regimes since 1952. At times, the growth rate of provinces witnessed convergence and a clear divergence at others. To this effect, there is dichotomy of sorts in the implementation of fiscal and monetary policy. On the one hand, provinces becoming more correlated allows the Chinese authorities to employ macroeconomic policies of a “one size fits all nature but reduces the economy's ability to absorb shocks. On the other hand, as the correlation between provinces declines, it is much more difficult to impose universal policy prescriptions but increases the ability to absorb shocks through diversification. Using a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility, we found that the economic growth in the city of Tianjin appears to have experienced a sustained increase of synchronization with the overall national performance. While the province of Zhejiang and the city of Shanghai appear to have experienced just the opposite. *****I'm sure there is a more grabbing summary than this!


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